Evolving Conflict in the Fifth Domain

Over the past years, concerns that cyberspace will be used as an arena for full-blown conflict have mounted as the scale and pervasiveness of cyber incidents increase. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the growing frequency and severity of cyberattacks are undermining trust and encouraging countries to adopt offensive postures for the hostile use of cyberspace.

The unique characteristics of cyber operations include challenges in attributing and assigning responsibility for incidents that may result in intended or unintended misattribution, which may escalate to conflict among countries. Digital anonymity can also enable nonstate armed and criminal groups and individuals to develop or access potentially destabilizing capabilities with a high degree of impunity.

In a hyper-digitalized environment, digital technologies facilitate, amplify and accelerate economic and societal development. At the same time, these technologies drive novel concepts for perpetrating hostile and malicious acts, creating new risks related to weapons technologies used in physical conflict.

Digital developments have the potential to radically alter conventional arms balances, increase prospects of traditional armed conflict and seriously undermine nuclear stability. For instance, networked warfare opens the possibility that nuclear command and control systems could be hacked by cyber means, including by third parties with malicious intent.

Digital developments have the potential to radically alter conventional arms balances, increase prospects of traditional armed conflict, and seriously undermine nuclear stability.

At the UN, multilateral efforts within the field of disarmament and nonproliferation have focused largely on the regulation or prohibition of the use of specific weapons. Multilateral discussions in the area of information and communications technologies (ICT), on the other hand, have concentrated on regulating the behavior of states instead of the technologies themselves. This ensures that agreed measures remain applicable and are future-proofed in the face of often rapid technological developments.

Over the past 16 years, through intergovernmental processes under the UN General Assembly, countries have agreed to be guided in their use of ICT by an initial framework, which includes affirming that international law, in particular the United Nations Charter, applies in the use of these technologies, a suite of voluntary, non-binding norms of responsible state behavior, as well as concrete sets of confidence- and capacity-building measures.

More efforts must be undertaken. States carry a primary responsibility for maintaining international security, including in cyberspace. However, as digital technologies permeate every aspect of our societies, states cannot shoulder the burden alone. Other stakeholders bring unique perspectives and expertise and have a growing role as well as responsibility to join with states in ensuring digital peace. The UN stands ready to continue doing its part.